Warenkorb
 

The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility". Winner of the Wirtschaftsbuchpreis Financial Times Deutschland getAbstract 2007

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan.

Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb

"The most prophetic voice of all."-GQ

Praise for The Black Swan

"[A book] that altered modern thinking."-The Times (London)

"A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail

"Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times

"The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate

"[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy."-The Wall Street Journal

"Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times

"Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition."-The New York Times Book Review
Rezension
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb

"The most prophetic voice of all."-GQ

Praise for The Black Swan

"[A book] that altered modern thinking."-The Times (London)

"A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail

"Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times

"The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate

"[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy."-The Wall Street Journal

"Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times

"Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition."-The New York Times Book Review
Portrait
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is “decision making under opacity”—that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don’t understand.

 

Taleb’s books have been published in thirty-three languages.
… weiterlesen
  • Artikelbild-0
  • PROLOGUE

    ON THE PLUMAGE OF BIRDS

    Before the discovery of Australia, people in the old world were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence. The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists (and others extremely concerned with the coloring of birds), but that is not where the significance of the story lies. It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge. One single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is one single (and, I am told, quite ugly) black bird.

    I push one step beyond this philosophical-logical question into an empirical reality, and one that has obsessed me since childhood. What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.

    First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

    I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. Ever since we left the Pleistocene, some ten millennia ago, the effect of these Black Swans has been increasing. It started accelerating during the industrial revolution, as the world started getting more complicated, while ordinary events, the ones we study and discuss and try to predict from reading the newspapers, have become increasingly inconsequential.

    Just imagine how little your understanding of the world on the eve of the events of 1914 would have helped you guess what was to happen next. (Don't cheat by using the explanations drilled into your cranium by your dull high school teacher). How about the rise of Hitler and the subsequent war? How about the precipitous demise of the Soviet bloc? How about the rise of Islamic fundamentalism? How about the spread of the Internet? How about the market crash of 1987 (and the more unexpected recovery)? Fads, epidemics, fashion, ideas, the emergence of art genres and schools. All follow these Black Swan dynamics. Literally, just about everything of significance around you might qualify.

    This combination of low predictability and large impact makes the Black Swan a great puzzle; but that is not yet the core concern of this book. Add to this phenomenon the fact that we tend to act as if it does not exist! I don't mean just you, your cousin Joey, and me, but almost all "social scientists" who, for over a century, have operated under the false belief that their tools could measure uncertainty. For the applications of the sciences of uncertainty to real-world problems has had ridiculous effects; I have been privileged to see it in finance and economics. Go ask your portfolio manager for his definition of "risk," and odds are that he will supply you with a measure that excludes the possibility of the Black Swan-hence one that has no better predictive value for assessing the total risks than astrology (we will see how they dress up the intellectual fraud with mathematics). This problem is endemic in social matters.

    The central idea of this book concerns our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly the large deviations: Why do we, scientists or nonscientists, hotshots or regular Joes, tend to see the pennies instead of the dollars? Why do we keep focusing on the minutiae, not the possible significant larg
In den Warenkorb

Beschreibung

Produktdetails

Einband Taschenbuch
Seitenzahl 480
Erscheinungsdatum 01.05.2010
Sprache Englisch
ISBN 978-0-8129-7381-5
Verlag Random House LCC US
Maße (L/B/H) 20/13.1/3 cm
Gewicht 352 g
Abbildungen CHARTS & ILLUSTRATIONS
Auflage 2nd edition
Verkaufsrang 2763
Buch (Taschenbuch, Englisch)
Buch (Taschenbuch, Englisch)
Fr. 18.05
Fr. 18.05
inkl. gesetzl. MwSt.
inkl. gesetzl. MwSt.
zzgl. Versandkosten
Versandfertig innert 1 - 2 Werktagen,  Kostenlose Lieferung ab Fr.  30 i
Versandfertig innert 1 - 2 Werktagen
Kostenlose Lieferung ab Fr.  30 i
In den Warenkorb
Vielen Dank für Ihr Feedback!
Entschuldigung, beim Absenden Ihres Feedbacks ist ein Fehler passiert. Bitte versuchen Sie es erneut.
Ihr Feedback zur Seite
Haben Sie alle relevanten Informationen erhalten?

Kundenbewertungen

Durchschnitt
1 Bewertungen
Übersicht
0
1
0
0
0

Anregende Thesen mit Abschweifungen
von einer Kundin/einem Kunden aus Basel am 24.11.2011

Das Buch befasst sich auf einer abstrakten und grösstenteils auch philosophischen Ebene mit dem Auftreten äusserst unwahrscheinlicher oder unerwarteten Situationen. Im Fokus stehen jedoch weder die Berechnung von Wahrscheinlichkeiten noch die Vielfalt an Möglichkeiten. Unerwartetes kann jederzeit und ohne Vorwarnung auftreten, w... Das Buch befasst sich auf einer abstrakten und grösstenteils auch philosophischen Ebene mit dem Auftreten äusserst unwahrscheinlicher oder unerwarteten Situationen. Im Fokus stehen jedoch weder die Berechnung von Wahrscheinlichkeiten noch die Vielfalt an Möglichkeiten. Unerwartetes kann jederzeit und ohne Vorwarnung auftreten, was jede statistische Wahrscheinlichkeit erübrigt. Die Herkunft aus der Finanzwelt ist deutlich spürbar, der Autor schafft jedoch den Sprung in die Abstraktion und macht seine Theorien somit auf alle Lebenssituationen anwendbar. Von grossem Interesse ist die menschliche Fähigkeit bzw. Unfähigkeit zur korrekten Vorhersage und auch den Umgang mit höchst Unwahrscheinlichem. Schwierigkeiten in der Vorhersage begründet der Autor vorwiegend mit dem Fehlen relevanter (Zukunftsbetrachtung basierend auf Erfahrungswerten) und auch korrekter (Verfälschung durch Erzählung) Informationen. Auf neurobiologischer Ebene sieht er eine menschliche Schwäche, sein eigenes Wissen richtig einschätzen zu können. Der Autor fordert daher zur generellen Skepsis im Umgang mit Vorhersagen auf. Das Originalwerk liest sich durch den unerwartet lockeren Schreibstil flüssig. Teilweise wirken die Texte jedoch etwas hochgestochen bis elitär. Unzählige Anekdoten aus dem Leben des Autors verleihen dem Buch eine persönliche Note und können den Leser durch ihre ironische bis zynische Art zum Schmunzeln bringen. Durch die Vermischung autobiografischer Elemente und wissenschaftlichen Thesen wird das Buch unnötig langatmig und die theoretischen Herleitungen verwässert. Trotz allem ist das Buch sehr empfehlenswert und ein interessanter Einblick in die Welt des Unwahrscheinlichen.